Former information minister Khieu Kanharith argues that Thai attacks deeper into Cambodia are not about territorial expansion. If that were the objective, he says, Thailand would concentrate forces to seize particular claimed positions; attacking in many places instead seeks to thin Cambodia’s defensive line, although he questions how long Thai troops can withstand Cambodian shelling. With elections approaching, he likens the urgency to someone with water up to their nose clutching even a dead dog. He identifies three possible immediate strategies that could become long-term ones if successful.
First, he argues, Thailand seeks to restore public confidence that it remains the region’s “big brother” and cannot allow others to “pull the tiger’s whiskers,” especially a small Cambodia that had previously been weakened. He recalls foreign newspapers after UNTAC describing Phnom Penh as Bangkok 30 years earlier. In his view, greater Thai public confidence would mean more supporting votes.
Second, he says, Thailand seeks to depress Cambodia’s economy by forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. He puts the number at nearly half a million at the time, creating a government burden, and asks what the total cost would be if the government spent a hypothetical five dollars a day on food, water, shelter and medicine. He sees this as warfare requiring little major spending by Thailand. However, he argues Thailand did not anticipate the nationwide Cambodian effort to assist displaced people and substantially ease the government’s burden. In particular, buying Cambodian products to help Cambodians has, he says, boosted domestic production and domestic spending.
Third, he argues that attacks deeper into Cambodia aim to gradually erode the slogan “We trust our government and our heroic armed forces” until the current government faces a crisis.
He says Thailand is making a large gamble and would lose heavily if it fails. He nevertheless warns Cambodia against a feint in one direction followed by an attack in another: a lapse could allow Thai forces to seize positions and hold out in tunnels, leaving Cambodia to take the offensive.
Source: Khieu Kanharith
Adapted by: ចិន្តា ទីទិ
